Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security by Kurt M. Campbell

By Kurt M. Campbell

Weather swap threatens not just the surroundings yet international peace and defense besides. Climatic Cataclysm brings jointly specialists on weather technological know-how, international coverage, political technology, oceanography, background, and nationwide safety to take degree of those hazards. The participants research 3 eventualities as a foundation for destiny making plans. the 1st state of affairs tasks the most probably results of the predicted point of weather swap over the following thirty years, according to present medical types. The critical state of affairs, in keeping with a miles more desirable reaction to present degrees of carbon loading, foresees profound and in all probability destabilizing international results over the following iteration or extra. ultimately, the catastrophic state of affairs is characterised by means of a devastating "tipping aspect" within the weather method, might be fifty or 100 years for this reason. during this destiny international, the land-based polar ice sheets have disappeared, international sea degrees have risen dramatically, and the prevailing ordinary order has been destroyed past fix. Climatic Cataclysm analyzes the protection implications of those situations, starting from affliction proliferation, large-scale migration, and elevated low-intensity clash to the danger of nuclear battle. It additionally considers the teachings that may be discovered from earlier civilizations faced with normal catastrophe and asks what the 3 greatest emitters of greenhouse gases—the usa, the ecu Union, and China—can do to minimize and deal with destiny dangers. weather swap may perhaps end up to be the one maximum problem confronting the us and certainly, human civilization. Climatic Cataclysm is helping clarify why. individuals: Sharon Burke (Center for a brand new American Security), Leon Fuerth (George Washington University), Jay Gulledge (Pew middle on international weather Change), Alexander T. J. Lennon (Center for Strategic and foreign Studies), J.R. McNeill (Georgetown University), Peter Ogden (Center for American Progress), John Podesta (Center for American Progress), Julianne Smith (Center for Strategic and overseas Studies), Richard Weitz (Hudson Institute), and R. James Woolsey (Vantage element enterprise Partners).

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The bubonic plague that harrowed Russia in the 1770s and the cholera epidemics of nineteenthcentury Europe both led to major reform efforts in municipal and national governments. 39 This may amount to a small silver lining in the dark cloud of natural disaster, in the same way that losing a war or undergoing economic depression has served as a spur for reform—provided something survived to be reformed. Religious turbulence has long been a normal social reaction to nature’s shocks. Throughout history most people understood plagues, hurricanes, droughts, and other disasters as divinely ordained or the work of evil people with supernatural powers.

28. Douglas Jehl and Andrew C. Revkin, “Bush, in Reversal, Won’t Seek Cut in Emissions of Carbon Dioxide,” New York Times, March 14, 2001, p. 1. 29. Janet L Sawin, “Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat Than Terrorism,” Global Security Brief 3 (Washington: Worldwatch Institute, April 2005). See also Gregory D. Foster, “A New Security Paradigm,” Worldwatch, January– February 2005, p. 45. 30. John Zarocosta, “World Leaders Rally around Climate-Change Issue,” Washington Times, January 29, 2007, p.

24 Fourth, in the wake of disasters, government authorities have frequently been the target of popular wrath, either for neglect or for intrusive efforts to minimize or prevent damage. This is by and large a modern phenomenon, a reflection of the state’s assumption of responsibility for public health and order. Cholera epidemics in nineteenth-century Europe intensified divisions within society and contributed to the revolutionary spirit of the 1830-to1871 era. Cholera was a fearsome scourge that killed quickly and seemed to come out of nowhere—it is communicated by a bacillus that thrives in warm water and originally came from South Asia.

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